New York Times  [Printer-friendly version]
August 22, 2006

NEED FOR WATER COULD DOUBLE IN 50 YEARS, U.N. STUDY FINDS

[Rachel's introduction: "At the worst, a deepening water crisis would
fuel violent conflicts, dry up rivers and increase groundwater
pollution, the report says. It would also force the rural poor to
clear ever more grasslands and forests to grow food and leave many
more people hungry."]

By Celia W. Dugger

More than two billion people already live in regions facing a scarcity
of water, and unless the world changes its ways over the next 50
years, the amount of water needed for a rapidly growing population
will double, scientists warned in a study released yesterday.

At the worst, a deepening water crisis would fuel violent conflicts,
dry up rivers and increase groundwater pollution, their report says.
It would also force the rural poor to clear ever more grasslands and
forests to grow food and leave many more people hungry.

The report, which draws on the research of more than 400 hydrologists,
agronomists and other scientists, was sponsored by the United Nations
Food and Agriculture Organization and the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research, the world's premier network of
agricultural research centers, among others.

The authors of the report, "Water for Good, Water for Life: Insights
from the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture,"
concluded that countries confronting severe water shortages cannot
simply employ the same strategies for increasing food production that
have had dramatic success over the past half-century.

Since 1950, the acreage of land under irrigation -- a driving factor
behind the Green Revolution that helped Asia feed itself -- has
tripled. But some parts of the world, including the breadbaskets of
India and China, the cotton belt of Central Asia and swaths of the
Middle East, are reaching the physical limits of their water supplies.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the world's poorest region, has lacked the
financial wherewithal to build dams and irrigation systems to get
water to farms and homes in rural areas where most people live.

"We have to learn how to grow more food with less water," said David
Molden, the principal researcher at the International Water Management
Institute in Sri Lanka and the coordinator of the study. "That's
imperative. We can't just keep expanding the land used."

In Africa, where having an adequate food supply is still a life-and-
death issue, the scholars say governments and donors should focus on
relatively inexpensive, small-scale methods for irrigating small,
often widely scattered plots of land.

For example, farmers could use small tanks to store rainwater and
apply it to crops through simple drip irrigation during dry spells.
Farmers could also operate treadle pumps to tap into groundwater. Such
pumps work like a stair stepper in the gym, cost only $50 to $100 each
and are powered by the farmer's own labor, not costly fuels.

"A lot more people could benefit from these small-scale technologies
in Africa than from a large dam," said Mr. Molden, a hydrologist. "You
can buy a treadle pump and install it immediately. You have to wait 5
or 10 years for a dam to be built."

But the authors of the study, released in Stockholm at an
international conference on water, also note that while these
technologies may be simple, installing them on a national scale and
maintaining their use would be no easy matter. For example, a country
like Ethiopia, with very low rural literacy levels, would need to
train people to carry out such a plan.

Water alone would not be enough. Farmers need credit, crop insurance
and roads to get their products to market. They need AIDS treatment,
and they need fertilizers to nourish their land. A major study
released in March found that three-quarters of sub-Saharan Africa's
farmland is severely depleted of basic nutrients to grow crops.

The report also raised the specter of global climate change, and its
potential to alter patterns of rainfall, especially in the poor
countries near the Equator.

The more rapid glacial melt in the Himalayas is now increasing the
water flowing into India, Nepal, Pakistan and China, but it may mean
much less water in future years, the report said.

"To me, that's quite frightening," Mr. Molden said.