The Independent (UK)
January 16, 2006
ENVIRONMENT IN CRISIS: 'WE ARE PAST THE POINT OF NO RETURN'
Thirty years ago, the scientist James Lovelock worked out that the
Earth possessed a planetary-scale control system which kept the
environment fit for life. He called it Gaia, and the theory has become
widely accepted. Now, he believes mankind's abuse of the environment
is making that mechanism work against us. His astonishing conclusion -
that climate change is already insoluble, and life on Earth will never
be the same again.
By Michael McCarthy
The world has already passed the point of no return for climate
change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive,
according to James Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who
conceived the idea of Gaia -- the Earth which keeps itself fit for
life.
In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, published in today's
Independent, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter
global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too
late.
The world and human society face disaster to a worse extent, and on a
faster timescale, than almost anybody realises, he believes. He
writes: " Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and
the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic
where the climate remains tolerable."
In making such a statement, far gloomier than any yet made by a
scientist of comparable international standing, Professor Lovelock
accepts he is going out on a limb. But as the man who conceived the
first wholly new way of looking at life on Earth since Charles Darwin,
he feels his own analysis of what is happening leaves him no choice.
He believes that it is the self-regulating mechanism of Gaia itself -
increasingly accepted by other scientists worldwide, although they
prefer to term it the Earth System -- which, perversely, will ensure
that the warming cannot be mastered.
This is because the system contains myriad feedback mechanisms which
in the past have acted in concert to keep the Earth much cooler than
it otherwise would be. Now, however, they will come together to
amplify the warming being caused by human activities such as transport
and industry through huge emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide (CO2).
It means that the harmful consequences of human beings damaging the
living planet's ancient regulatory system will be non-linear -- in
other words, likely to accelerate uncontrollably.
He terms this phenomenon "The Revenge of Gaia" and examines it in
detail in a new book with that title, to be published next month.
The uniqueness of the Lovelock viewpoint is that it is holistic,
rather than reductionist. Although he is a committed supporter of
current research into climate change, especially at Britain's Hadley
Centre, he is not looking at individual facets of how the climate
behaves, as other scientists inevitably are. Rather, he is looking at
how the whole control system of the Earth behaves when put under
stress.
Professor Lovelock, who conceived the idea of Gaia in the 1970s while
examining the possibility of life on Mars for Nasa in the US, has been
warning of the dangers of climate change since major concerns about it
first began nearly 20 years ago.
He was one of a select group of scientists who gave an initial
briefing on global warming to Margaret Thatcher's Cabinet at 10
Downing Street in April 1989.
His concerns have increased steadily since then, as evidence of a
warming climate has mounted. For example, he shared the alarm of many
scientists at the news last September that the ice covering the Arctic
Ocean is now melting so fast that in 2005 it reached a historic low
point.
Two years ago he sparked a major controversy with an article in The
Independent calling on environmentalists to drop their long-standing
opposition to nuclear power, which does not produce the greenhouses
gases of conventional power stations.
Global warming was proceeding so fast that only a major expansion of
nuclear power could bring it under control, he said. Most of the Green
movement roundly rejected his call, and does so still.
Now his concerns have reached a peak -- and have a new emphasis.
Rather than calling for further ways of countering climate change, he
is calling on governments in Britain and elsewhere to begin large-
scale preparations for surviving what he now sees as inevitable -- in
his own phrase today, "a hell of a climate", likely to be in Europe up
to 8C hotter than it is today.
In his book's concluding chapter, he writes: "What should a sensible
European government be doing now? I think we have little option but to
prepare for the worst, and assume that we have passed the threshold."
And in today's Independent he writes: "We will do our best to survive,
but sadly I cannot see the United States or the emerging economies of
China and India cutting back in time, and they are the main source of
[CO2] emissions. The worst will happen ..."
He goes on: "We have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and
realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and
nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain
civilisation for as long as they can." He believes that the world's
governments should plan to secure energy and food supplies in the
global hothouse, and defences against the expected rise in sea levels.
The scientist's vision of what human society may ultimately be reduced
to through climate change is " a broken rabble led by brutal
warlords."
Professor Lovelock draws attention to one aspect of the warming threat
in particular, which is that the expected temperature rise is
currently being held back artificially by a global aerosol -- a layer
of dust in the atmosphere right around the planet's northern
hemisphere -- which is the product of the world's industry.
This shields us from some of the sun's radiation in a phenomenon which
is known as "global dimming" and is thought to be holding the global
temperature down by several degrees. But with a severe industrial
downturn, the aerosol could fall out of the atmosphere in a very short
time, and the global temperature could take a sudden enormous leap
upwards.
One of the most striking ideas in his book is that of "a guidebook for
global warming survivors" aimed at the humans who would still be
struggling to exist after a total societal collapse.
Written, not in electronic form, but "on durable paper with long-
lasting print", it would contain the basic accumulated scientific
knowledge of humanity, much of it utterly taken for granted by us now,
but originally won only after a hard struggle -- such as our place in
the solar system, or the fact that bacteria and viruses cause
infectious diseases.
Rough guide to a planet in jeopardy
Global warming, caused principally by the large-scale emissions of
industrial gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), is almost certainly the
greatest threat that mankind has ever faced, because it puts a
question mark over the very habitability of the Earth.
Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may
become unviable over huge areas of the world where people are already
poor and hungry; water supplies for millions or even billions may
fail. Rising sea levels will destroy substantial coastal areas in low-
lying countries such as Bangladesh, at the very moment when their
populations are mushrooming. Numberless environmental refugees will
overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope,
while modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful
extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New
Orleans last summer.
The international community accepts the reality of global warming,
supported by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In
its last report, in 2001, the IPCC said global average temperatures
were likely to rise by up to 5.8C by 2100. In high latitudes, such as
Britain, the rise is likely to be much higher, perhaps 8C. The warming
seems to be proceeding faster than anticipated and in the IPCC's next
report, 2007, the timescale may be shortened. Yet there still remains
an assumption that climate change is controllable, if CO2 emissions
can be curbed. Lovelock is warning: think again.
'The Revenge of Gaia' by James Lovelock is published by Penguin on 2
February, price u16.99
The world has already passed the point of no return for climate
change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive,
according to James Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who
conceived the idea of Gaia -- the Earth which keeps itself fit for
life.
In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, published in today's
Independent, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter
global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too
late.
The world and human society face disaster to a worse extent, and on a
faster timescale, than almost anybody realises, he believes. He
writes: " Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and
the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic
where the climate remains tolerable."
In making such a statement, far gloomier than any yet made by a
scientist of comparable international standing, Professor Lovelock
accepts he is going out on a limb. But as the man who conceived the
first wholly new way of looking at life on Earth since Charles Darwin,
he feels his own analysis of what is happening leaves him no choice.
He believes that it is the self-regulating mechanism of Gaia itself -
increasingly accepted by other scientists worldwide, although they
prefer to term it the Earth System -- which, perversely, will ensure
that the warming cannot be mastered.
This is because the system contains myriad feedback mechanisms which
in the past have acted in concert to keep the Earth much cooler than
it otherwise would be. Now, however, they will come together to
amplify the warming being caused by human activities such as transport
and industry through huge emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide (CO2).
It means that the harmful consequences of human beings damaging the
living planet's ancient regulatory system will be non-linear -- in
other words, likely to accelerate uncontrollably.
He terms this phenomenon "The Revenge of Gaia" and examines it in
detail in a new book with that title, to be published next month.
The uniqueness of the Lovelock viewpoint is that it is holistic,
rather than reductionist. Although he is a committed supporter of
current research into climate change, especially at Britain's Hadley
Centre, he is not looking at individual facets of how the climate
behaves, as other scientists inevitably are. Rather, he is looking at
how the whole control system of the Earth behaves when put under
stress.
Professor Lovelock, who conceived the idea of Gaia in the 1970s while
examining the possibility of life on Mars for Nasa in the US, has been
warning of the dangers of climate change since major concerns about it
first began nearly 20 years ago.
He was one of a select group of scientists who gave an initial
briefing on global warming to Margaret Thatcher's Cabinet at 10
Downing Street in April 1989.
His concerns have increased steadily since then, as evidence of a
warming climate has mounted. For example, he shared the alarm of many
scientists at the news last September that the ice covering the Arctic
Ocean is now melting so fast that in 2005 it reached a historic low
point.
Two years ago he sparked a major controversy with an article in The
Independent calling on environmentalists to drop their long-standing
opposition to nuclear power, which does not produce the greenhouses
gases of conventional power stations.
Global warming was proceeding so fast that only a major expansion of
nuclear power could bring it under control, he said. Most of the Green
movement roundly rejected his call, and does so still.
Now his concerns have reached a peak -- and have a new emphasis.
Rather than calling for further ways of countering climate change, he
is calling on governments in Britain and elsewhere to begin large-
scale preparations for surviving what he now sees as inevitable -- in
his own phrase today, "a hell of a climate", likely to be in Europe up
to 8C hotter than it is today. In his book's concluding chapter, he
writes: "What should a sensible European government be doing now? I
think we have little option but to prepare for the worst, and assume
that we have passed the threshold."
And in today's Independent he writes: "We will do our best to survive,
but sadly I cannot see the United States or the emerging economies of
China and India cutting back in time, and they are the main source of
[CO2] emissions. The worst will happen ..."
He goes on: "We have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and
realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and
nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain
civilisation for as long as they can." He believes that the world's
governments should plan to secure energy and food supplies in the
global hothouse, and defences against the expected rise in sea levels.
The scientist's vision of what human society may ultimately be reduced
to through climate change is " a broken rabble led by brutal
warlords."
Professor Lovelock draws attention to one aspect of the warming threat
in particular, which is that the expected temperature rise is
currently being held back artificially by a global aerosol -- a layer
of dust in the atmosphere right around the planet's northern
hemisphere -- which is the product of the world's industry.
This shields us from some of the sun's radiation in a phenomenon which
is known as "global dimming" and is thought to be holding the global
temperature down by several degrees. But with a severe industrial
downturn, the aerosol could fall out of the atmosphere in a very short
time, and the global temperature could take a sudden enormous leap
upwards.
One of the most striking ideas in his book is that of "a guidebook for
global warming survivors" aimed at the humans who would still be
struggling to exist after a total societal collapse.
Written, not in electronic form, but "on durable paper with long-
lasting print", it would contain the basic accumulated scientific
knowledge of humanity, much of it utterly taken for granted by us now,
but originally won only after a hard struggle -- such as our place in
the solar system, or the fact that bacteria and viruses cause
infectious diseases.
Rough guide to a planet in jeopardy
Global warming, caused principally by the large-scale emissions of
industrial gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), is almost certainly the
greatest threat that mankind has ever faced, because it puts a
question mark over the very habitability of the Earth.
Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may
become unviable over huge areas of the world where people are already
poor and hungry; water supplies for millions or even billions may
fail. Rising sea levels will destroy substantial coastal areas in low-
lying countries such as Bangladesh, at the very moment when their
populations are mushrooming. Numberless environmental refugees will
overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope,
while modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful
extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New
Orleans last summer.
The international community accepts the reality of global warming,
supported by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In
its last report, in 2001, the IPCC said global average temperatures
were likely to rise by up to 5.8C by 2100. In high latitudes, such as
Britain, the rise is likely to be much higher, perhaps 8C. The warming
seems to be proceeding faster than anticipated and in the IPCC's next
report, 2007, the timescale may be shortened. Yet there still remains
an assumption that climate change is controllable, if CO2 emissions
can be curbed. Lovelock is warning: think again.
'The Revenge of Gaia' by James Lovelock will be published by Penguin
on 2 February, price 16.99 pounds.
Copyright 2006 Independent News and Media Limited