Reuters, June 20, 2006


[Rachel's introduction: Global carbon dioxide production, a main cause of global warming, is projected to grow at 2.3% per year, which would double annual production every 29 years. Toasty weather -- and toasted planet -- just ahead.]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- World oil demand should soar from this year's almost 86 million barrels per day to 118 million bpd by 2030, even though higher fuel prices will cut back some petroleum usage, the U.S. government's top energy forecasting agency predicted Tuesday.

Much of the growth in global oil consumption over the next quarter century will come from the non-industrialized nations in Asia, where the strong economies of China and India will gobble up more barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy.

"Much of the world's incremental oil demand is projected for use in the transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum," EIA said in its annual long-term international energy supply and demand forecast.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will provide a large chunk of the additional oil supplies that will be needed to meet demand in 2030, the EIA said.

However, the agency said OPEC's total share of global supply will fall from 39.7 percent (34 million bpd) of this year's world oil demand to 38.4 percent (45.3 million bpd) of global oil demand in 2030.

While worldwide oil consumption rises, expected high crude prices will reduce demand by some 8 million bpd more than forecast last year in 2025 to 111 million bpd, EIA said. This year's forecast has projections out to 2030 for the first time.

Oil production from non-OPEC countries in West Africa and the Caspian Sea region is forecast to increase sharply and grab a larger share of the global oil market over the next 25 years.

Oil output is expected to decline in Norway, Europe's largest producer, from a peak of 3.6 million bpd this year to 2.5 million bpd in 2030.

Despite President Bush's call for the United States to end its addiction to oil, Americans will use more crude and retain the title of the world's biggest energy consumers.

U.S. oil demand is forecast to jump from 20.8 million bpd this year to 27.6 million bpd in 2030, still accounting for about one out of every four barrels of crude consumed each day in the world.

The EIA's long-term forecast to 2030 also predicted:

- Global natural gas consumption will jump from 95 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 182 trillion cubic feet.

- Coal use will grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent.

- High oil prices will raise concerns about the security of energy supplies and will increase nuclear power generating capacity.

- Carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming will rise from 25 billion tons in 2003 to 43.7 billion tons. Non-industrialized nations will account for 75 percent of the increase in emissions by 2030.

- Renewables, like solar and wind power, will meet 9.1 percent of U.S. energy demand in 2030, almost double from 5.7 percent in 2003.

Copyright 2006 Reuters