Rachel's Democracy & Health News #932  [Printer-friendly version]
November 8, 2007

CARBON SEQUESTRATION

[Rachel's introduction: Carbon sequestration is an industrial plan to
bury as much as 10 trillion tons of carbon dioxide deep in the
ground, hoping it will stay there forever. Though most people have
heard little or nothing about this plan, it has already been endorsed
by major environmental groups, universities, philanthropies and the
federal government.]

By Peter Montague

In response to a relentless stream of bad news about global warming, a
cluster of major industries has formed a loose partnership with big
environmental groups, prestigious universities, philanthropic
foundations, and the U.S. federal government -- all promoting a
technical quick-fix for global warming called "carbon sequestration."

"Carbon sequestration" is a plan to capture and bury as much as 10
trillion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide deep in the ground, hoping it
will stay there forever. (A ton is 2000 pounds; a metric tonne is 2200
pounds; ten trillion is 10,000,000,000,000.) Though the plan has not
yet received any substantial publicity, it is very far along.

The purpose of the plan is to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide
entering the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil
and natural gas). Carbon dioxide is the most important "greenhouse
gas," which is thought to be contributing to global warming.[1] A
carbon sequestration program would capture the gas, turn it into a
liquid, transport it through a network of pipelines, and pump it into
the ground, intending for it to stay buried forever.

From an industrial perspective, carbon sequestration seems like a
winning strategy. If it succeeded in reducing carbon dioxide emissions
to the atmosphere, it would allow coal and oil firms to retain and
even expand their market share in the energy business throughout the
21st century, eliminating the need for substantial innovation. Carbon
sequestration would also greatly reduce the incentive for Congress to
invest in renewable energy, which competes with coal and oil.
Furthermore, carbon sequestration might deflect the accusation that
the coal and oil corporations bear responsibility (and perhaps even
legal liability) for the major consequences of global warming (more
and bigger hurricanes, droughts, floods, and fires, for example).
Finally, if the carbon sequestration plan were to fail, with grievous
consequences for human civilization, failure would occur decades or
centuries into the future when the current generation of decision-
makers, researchers, philanthropists, and environmental advocates
could no longer be held accountable.

For all these reasons, coal, oil, mining, and automobile corporations,
plus electric utilities, are eager to get carbon sequestration going.

To accomplish their goal, the coal and oil firms are being helped by
researchers at Princeton and Stanford universities, and by the
Joyce Foundation in Chicago, which is underwriting a campaign by
environmental advocates on behalf of industry's plan. Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the Izaak Walton League, the Clean
Air Task Force, the Michigan Environmental Council, and others have
received substantial grants to advocate for carbon sequestration.
Finally, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator Stephen
Johnson recently endorsed industry's plan. All the pieces are now in
place and an aggressive campaign is under way to persuade state and
federal legislators to endorse large-scale carbon sequestration.

What's at stake

After trillions of tons of carbon dioxide have been buried in the deep
earth, if even a tiny proportion of it leaks back out into the
atmosphere, the planet could heat rapidly and civilization as we know
it could be disrupted. Quite plausibly the surface of the Earth could
become uninhabitable for humans. Thus, one way or another, the future
of humanity is at stake in the decision whether to endorse carbon
sequestration or to develop the many renewable energy technologies
that are available to eliminate our dependence on carbon-based
fuels.

Major benefits for the coal industry

To one degree or another, carbon sequestration will benefit all of the
industries involved, allowing them to continue business as usual,
removing the need for substantial innovation, and reducing competition
from renewable fuels. However, it is the coal industry that will
benefit the most. One could argue that, without carbon sequestration,
the coal industry itself cannot survive. Once large-scale carbon
sequestration has begun, the coal industry will be free to unleash an
enormous new enterprise turning coal into liquid fuels. The technology
for coal-to-liquids, or CTL, was fully developed decades ago. CTL was
devised by German chemists in the 1920s, and the Nazis could not have
pursued World War II without it. Unfortunately, coal-to-liquids is an
exceptionally dirty technology that produces twice as much carbon
dioxide per gallon of fuel, compared to petroleum. Carbon
sequestration would bury that extra carbon dioxide in the ground, thus
solving the coal industry's biggest problem, making coal-to-liquids
feasible, and assuring a future for the coal industry itself.

You have perhaps heard the phrase "clean coal." This contradictory
term was coined by carbon sequestration advocates as a public
relations ploy. In "clean coal," the word "clean" is narrowly defined
to mean "coal that contributes less carbon to the atmosphere in the
short term, compared to typical coal combustion."

In actual fact there is nothing clean about "clean coal." Even if
large-scale carbon sequestration begins, the mining and burning of
"clean coal" will continue to destroy hundreds of mountains in
Appalachia, and will continue to pollute the Midwestern and Eastern
states with millions of tons of deadly fine and ultrafine particles of
soot ("fly ash"), plus nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx),
mercury, dioxins, radioactive particles, polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons, and so on. Large tonnages of coal bottom ash will still
be buried each year in shallow pits overlying aquifers, creating a
perpetual and growing threat to drinking water supplies. In the
Midwest and West, large tracts of land, and large amounts of scarce
water, would still be contaminated or otherwise made unavailable for
alternative uses. In sum, "clean coal" is an advertising slogan
without substance. Furthermore, if even a small proportion of the
sequestered carbon from "clean coal" ever leaks out of the ground, the
planet could experience runaway global warming.

The danger of tiny leaks

It is important to distinguish between carbon dioxide and carbon
itself. Carbon is an element, one of the 92 naturally-occurring
building blocks of the universe. Carbon dioxide is a chemical compound
made up of one carbon atom attached to two oxygen atoms (CO2). By
weight, carbon dioxide is 27% carbon; in other words, one ton of
elemental carbon will create 3.7 tons of carbon dioxide. Carbon
dioxide is the main "greenhouse gas" thought to be contributing to
global warming.[1]

Before the industrial revolution, there were 580 billion tonnes of
carbon in Earth's atmosphere; today there are 750 billion tonnes (an
increase of 170 billion tonnes, or 29%, since about 1750). Because
humans burn roughly 2% more coal, oil and natural gas each year
(thus doubling total use every 35 years), the carbon buildup in the
atmosphere is accelerating. Presently humans are emitting about eight
billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere each year, not all of
which is retained there.

Unfortunately, emissions of eight billion tonnes per year are
sufficient to worsen a global warming problem.[1]

The amount of carbon held in underground supplies of coal, oil and
natural gas is very large. By a conservative estimate, worldwide there
are 3510 billion tonnes of carbon remaining underground in coal; 230
billion tonnes of carbon in oil; and another 140 billion tonnes of
carbon in natural gas (plus 250 billion tonnes in peat), for a total
of 4130 billion tonnes of carbon held in fossil fuels globally. If
25% of this were burned and the carbon sequestered, leakage of only
0.8% of the total per year would exceed the current annual human
contribution to atmospheric carbon (eight billion tonnes). And of
course the oil and coal companies plan to burn far more than 25% of
what remains in the ground. Their goal is to burn 100% of it. If they
managed to burn 75% of remaining fuels, then annual leakage of 0.26%
of the total would exceed the current eight billion tonne annual human
contribution to atmospheric carbon. This could eventually lead to
runaway global warming, plausibly rendering the Earth uninhabitable
for humans.

It is now widely believed that humans must cut their carbon emissions
80% by the year 2050 to avert runaway global warming. (Actually,
some now calculate that more than an 80% cut is needed -- but for the
sake of argument, let's accept the lower 80% estimate at face value.)
An 80% reduction from eight billion tonnes would allow humans to emit
only 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon annually to avert runaway global
warming.

If we accept this estimate of the carbon reduction needed -- cutting
80% from current levels -- then the allowable leakage must be reduced
accordingly:

** if 25% of remaining fossil carbon is sequestered, any leakage above
0.16% (about one-sixth of one percent) of the total per year could
eventually result in runaway global warming;

** if 75% of remaining fossil carbon is sequestered, then leakage
greater than 0.05% (one-twentieth of one percent) of the total per
year could eventually produce runaway global warming.

Can humans bury several trillion tons of carbon dioxide in the ground
with complete confidence that 0.05% of it will not leak out each year?
Never leak out? The leakage could begin at any time in the far
distant future because the danger would lie buried forever, waiting to
escape, a perpetual threat.

The short-term secondary effects of a carbon sequestration program are
also worth considering.

Once large-scale carbon sequestration begins, it will be exceedingly
difficult to stop. As soon as sequestration begins, the coal and oil
corporations, and the environmental groups and universities advocating
on their behalf, will assert that "carbon sequestration has been
successfully demonstrated." Indeed, the environmental advocates are
making such claims already, based on a very short history of pumping
small amounts of carbon dioxide into oil wells to force more oil to
the surface.[2] But how can anyone "demonstrate" that leakage will 
never occur in the future? Such a demonstration cannot be made.

Furthermore, once the U.S. government begins to repeat the
environmentalists' false claim that carbon sequestration has been
"successfully demonstrated," why would China not adopt it? And India,
countries in Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union --
why wouldn't they adopt it? If we claim a right to threaten the future
of humanity, don't others have an equal right to assert such a claim?

But can other countries devote the same resources we can devote to
siting, engineering and geologic studies? Will they all be able to
monitor for leaks far into the future, essentially forever? (For that
matter, will the U.S. have that capability? Humans have no experience
creating institutions with a duty of perpetual vigilance.)

If the carbon-sequestration advocates can get their program started,
it seems likely that Congress will declare the global warming problem
"solved" and carbon sequestration will be employed until all the
recoverable fossil fuels in the ground have been used up.

If carbon sequestration advocates can get their program going, the
U.S. will have little further incentive to invest in renewable sources
of energy -- and so we stand to lose a unique opportunity to rebuild
the U.S. economy on a sustainable basis and revive America's standing
as an industrial leader in the world. Carbon sequestration, once it
gets started, will allow 19th century energy technologies to dominate
the U.S. throughout most of the 21st century.

In sum, to evade liability, to relieve pressure for innovation, to
stifle competition, and to make a great deal of money, the proponents
of carbon sequestration are betting the future of humans on an
untestable technology -- permanent underground storage -- an
act of hubris unparalleled in the annals of our species.[3]

Minds already made up

But, you may ask, "Doesn't the U.S. have the strongest environmental
protection laws in the world? Surely a vigilant Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) will ask hard questions, and protect us from
the bias of industry's hired experts?"

Last month U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chief Stephen
Johnson announced that EPA will issue regulations covering
carbon sequestration. However, as he was announcing EPA's intention,
Mr. Johnson issued a ringing endorsement of carbon sequestration as
the silver bullet to fix the nation's environmental and economic
problems: "By harnessing the power of geological sequestration
technology, we are entering a new age of clean energy where we can be
both good stewards of the Earth, and good stewards of the American
economy," Mr. Johnson said. Clearly, Mr. Johnson's mind is already
made up.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) -- which earned its
reputation as a "shadow government" by watchdogging EPA -- now shares
EPA's giddy optimism toward carbon sequestration. In a letter to a
California legislator, NRDC's George Peridas asserts that carbon
sequestration can be "perfectly safe." And NRDC lawyer David Hawkins
was quoted recently saying carbon sequestration can be carried out
with "very very small risks." NRDC has a $437,500 grant from the
Joyce Foundation to promote carbon sequestration on industry's behalf.

Clearly, these "experts" have their minds made up. But many common-
sense questions remain:

** Given that there are many good alternatives, why would humans
accept even a "very very small" risk of making their only home
uninhabitable?

** And, given that the stakes are exceptionally high, shouldn't we
approach this with a little humility and ask, "What if the experts are
wrong? What if they are fallible and haven't thought of everything?
What if their understanding is imperfect?" After all, geology has
never been a predictive science, and humans have no experience burying
lethal hazards in the ground expecting them to remain there in
perpetuity.

** Since everyone alive today -- and all their children and their
children's children far into the future -- could be affected,
shouldn't we have a vigorous international debate on the wisdom of
carbon sequestration versus alternative ways of powering human
economies? Don't we have an obligation to develop a very broad
international consensus before proceeding -- especially among the
nations most likely to be harmed if carbon sequestration fails?
[4,5,6,7,8].

** And finally, give the exceedingly high stakes, the irreversible
nature of carbon sequestration, and the substantial and irreducible
uncertainties involved, isn't this a decision that cries out for
application of the precautionary principle?

==============

[1] Carbon dioxide is the main "greenhouse gas" causing global
warming. As humans burn carbon-containing fuels (coal, oil and natural
gas), carbon in the fuel combines with oxygen in the air to create
carbon dioxide, or CO2. In the air, CO2 acts like the glass roof on a
greenhouse -- it lets in sunlight, which is converted into heat energy
as it strikes the earth. When the heat energy radiates back into the
sky, CO2 in the atmosphere acts like a mirror, reflecting heat back
down to earth, warming the planet just as a glass roof warms a
greenhouse. Global warming from this "greenhouse effect" was first
described by Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

[2] Thirty-five million tons of CO2 are being pumped into depleted oil
wells in Texas each year, to force oil to the surface. Thirty-five
million is 0.00035 percent of ten trillion. Scaling up a 35 megaton
operation by a factor of 285,000 is not a trivial problem but this is
not mentioned by industry's advocates who are trying to persuade
legislators to endorse large-scale carbon sequestration.

[3] Another human act that demonstrated similar hubris by a small
technical elite was the explosion of the first A-bomb at the Trinity
Site in southern New Mexico July 16, 1945. That morning, the Los
Alamos scientists involved were not sure that the Bomb would work, but
they also had a side-bet going among themselves because they were
unsure whether the Bomb, if it did work, wouldn't ignite the Earth's
atmosphere.