Greenwire, July 17, 2008

NEW U.S. GOVERNMENT REPORT PREDICTS DIRE CONSEQUENCES OF WARMING

[Rachel's introduction: A new report from the U.S. Climate Science Program concludes that damage to the U.S. from global warming will likely be widespread and significant.]

By Katherine Boyle, Greenwire reporter

Global warming could have devastating effects across the United States, harming human health, settlements and welfare, according to a report (2.4 Mbyte PDF) released today by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

The study arrives in the wake of the Bush administration's decision to reject the idea of using the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gases last week. In the past, watchdog groups have accused the White House of attempting to suppress reports from the climate change program.

This particular report, which was led by the Global Change Research Program in EPA's Research and Development Office, concludes the damage from climate change will likely be widespread and significant.

Changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation, more frequent heat waves, more persistent and extreme drought conditions and associated water shortages are likely to create problems across the country, the study says. Extreme temperatures, potential increases in strong tropical storms, sea-level rise and increases in the occurrence of coastal and riverine flooding also are likely effects of climate change.

Those challenges will be compounded as the nation struggles to cope with population growth, aging citizens, migration patterns, and urban and coastal development, the report notes.

The shifting climate is likely to have a drastic effect on U.S. residents' lifestyles, affecting where they live, work and play.

Health

The report predicts human health effects will be substantial, though the United States may skirt some of the illness and death that could plague the developing world, thanks to its better developed public health infrastructure and greater wealth.

It is very likely heat-related illness and mortality will rise over the coming decades, the study says. The United States' rising population of elderly citizens will be most susceptible to the temperature extremes. By 2030, about 20 percent of the general population, more than 50 million people, will be over 65. Poor and minority populations concentrated in inner city neighborhoods also would be affected as they are more likely to lack air conditioning.

Higher temperatures, which lead to a spike in ozone levels, are likely to cause or exacerbate cardiovascular and pulmonary illnesses if current regulatory standards are not attained, the report notes. Air pollution in urban centers may also increase thanks to stagnant air masses related to climate change.

The rising temperatures may lead to an increase of disease caused by food and water-borne pathogens as well, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Physical features of communities, like housing quality and green space, can help or hurt the United States' efforts to cope with global warming. Social programs that affect access to health care and additional social and cultural factors also will have an effect, the study says.

As a result, climate change will probably accentuate the disparities in the nation's health care system, the report notes.

Extreme weather events, including hurricanes, floods and wildfires, also have the potential to affect public health. They also could take a toll on public infrastructure, such as sanitation, transportation, supply lines for food and energy and communication.

High energy use, thanks to a growing population and more extreme temperatures, also probably will result from global warming, the study says.

Regional variation

Overall, health effects are expected to vary by region, particularly in those prone to wildfires and flooding.

The northern parts of the nation will probably experience the largest increases in average temperatures and ground-level ozone and other airborne pollutants, the report says. As a result, people living in Midwestern and Northern cities are likely to be disproportionately affected by heat-related illnesses.

The range of areas in which certain diseases occur is likely to grow, particularly in a northerly direction.

Forest fires are also expected to increase in frequency, severity, distribution and duration in the Southeast, the Intermountain West and the West.

One of the areas most vulnerable to climate change is Alaska, which is likely to experience increased permafrost melt, flood-risk coastal zones and river basins, and arid areas. In parts of the state, the economic base is particularly climate sensitive.

States across the nation will face likely reductions in snowmelt, river flows and groundwater levels, as well as an increase in saline intrusion into coastal rivers and groundwater, the report says.

Coastal areas, which have seen a population surge as people move toward the water, face some of the biggest dangers.

Adaptation and mitigation

The United States is in a position to mitigate some of the effects of climate change and adapt to others that cannot be avoided, according to the report.

The most important step the United States can take to adapt to climate change is to support and maintain its public health infrastructure, the study says.

The nation's capacity for disaster planning and emergency response also is a key asset that should allow the United States to adapt to many of the health effects associated with climate change.

Despite their vulnerability, large cities have a good opportunity to adapt infrastructure and limit their susceptibility to global warming, as do coastal areas, the study notes.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program integrates federal research on climate and global change and is sponsored by 13 federal agencies. The Science and Technology Policy Office, the Council on Environmental Quality, the National Economic Council and the Office of Management and Budget oversee the program.

Click here to read the report (2.4 Mbyte PDF).

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